Austin rainfall totals 20168/26/2023 ![]() Since the creation of the United States Drought Monitor Map in 2000, Texas has been completely drought-free for approximately 8% of the time (2000–2014), and at least half of the state has been under drought conditions for approximately 42% of the same period. The warmest and the driest summer in the historical record helped fuel the worst wildfire season since statewide records began (approximately 1990), with nearly 4 million acres burned and almost $750 million in damages. The three most impactful events were drought, extreme heat, and wildfires. In 2020, the state was hit by eleven of the nation’s billion-dollar disasters. Texas is consistently ranked in the top 10 states affected by extreme events. Catastrophic flooding occurred across much of southeast Texas. Rainfall exceeded 30 inches in many locations, and a few locations had more than 50 inches (Figure 5). After making landfall on August 25, Harvey slowed and was nearly stationary for several days near Houston. Hurricane Harvey (2017) was the most destructive event in Texas history, mostly due to the unprecedented rainfall, which contributed to the second wettest month on record despite affecting only part of the state. The five wettest months on record have all occurred since the year 2000, led by 9.1 inches in May 2015. ![]() In the 1990s and early 2000s, the number of 3-inch extreme precipitation events was above average, and after the dry period of 2005–2014, they were well above average during the 2015–2020 period (Figure 4c). The driest consecutive 5 years was the 1952–1956 interval and the wettest was the 2015–2019 period. Historically significant droughts occurred in the late 1910s, the early 1950s, and the early 2010s the driest calendar years were 1917, 1956, and 2011 (Figure 4b). Precipitation is widely variable across Texas, with normal amounts ranging from less than 10 inches in the far west to more than 60 inches in the extreme southeast. The annual number of entire days below freezing was well above average in the 1970s and 1980s but has since been near the long-term average (Figure 4a). Daily minimum temperatures in January typically range from about 20☏ in the northern Panhandle to about 50☏ near the mouth of the Rio Grande River. The record dry conditions contributed to the higher temperatures. The Dallas-Fort Worth area endured 40 consecutive days with temperatures higher than 100˚F, which was the second-longest streak on record (1899–2020). The summer of 2011 was the warmest summer on record (since 1895) and broke the state record for highest average number of days with temperatures of 100 ☏ or more. The urban heat island effect increased these occurrences in city centers. While there is no overall trend in extremely hot days (Figure 2), the number of very warm nights was particularly high during the 2010s (Figure 3). Temperatures in Texas have risen almost 1.5˚F since the beginning of the 20th century (Figure 1). Less warming is expected under a lower emissions future (the coldest end-of-century projections being about 2☏ warmer than the historical average green shading) and more warming under a higher emissions future (the hottest years in the hottest end-of-century projections being about 10☏ warmer than the hottest year in the historical record red shading). ![]() Historically unprecedented warming is projected during this century. Observed temperatures are generally within the envelope of model simulations of the historical period (gray shading). Shading indicates the range of annual temperatures from the set of models. Temperatures in Texas (orange line) have risen almost 1.5☏ since the beginning of the 20th century. Projected changes for 2006–2100 are from global climate models for two possible futures: one in which greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase (higher emissions) and another in which greenhouse gas emissions increase at a slower rate (lower emissions). Figure 1: Observed and projected changes (compared to the 1901–1960 average) in near-surface air temperature for Texas. ![]()
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